David

Exponential Growth of the Populous

David — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 21:58:13 +0000

As the population grows, human uniqueness becomes less rare. Therefore artists, sports players, and other revered talents will be easier to discover. Based on the a statistic if you are one out of a million in terms of how unique you are, then there are 6000 others just like you in the world. This makes sense in a world of 6 billion people, and the number will continue to grow with the population. So next we can conclude that with increased supply and a stable rate of demand, that these positions will continue to devalue.

So the question is, will Hollywood become the next terrorist organization when they realize that the massive number of talented actors will drive down the wage?

Of course the answer is “no” as they would have civil war and all sorts of other issues first, but it is a funny thought.

The real question is, what can we do to position ourselves in a market that will grow with the population rather than glut.

Predictions for 2009 by Doug Kass

David — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 20:10:00 +0000

Doug Kass (of thestreet.com) made several predictions for the 2009 economy, and I thought that it would be good to save them here on my blog and see how it all turns out. Below you will find the article as it was copied directly from the website.

Without further ado, here is my list of 20 surprises for 2009. In doing so, we start the new year with the surprising story that ended the old year, the alleged Madoff Ponzi scheme.

1. The Russian mafia and Russian oligarchs are found to be large investors with Madoff. During the next few weeks, a well-known CNBC investigative reporter documents that the Russian oligarchs, certain members of the Russian mafia and several Colombian drug cartel families have invested and laundered more than $2 billion in Madoff’s strategy through offshore master feeders and through several fund of funds. There are several unsuccessful attempts made on Madoff and/or his family’s lives. With the large Russian investments in Madoff having gone sour and in light of the subsequent acts of violence against his family, U.S./Russian relations, which already were at a low point, are threatened. Madoff’s lawyers disclose that he has cancer, and his trial is delayed indefinitely as he undergoes chemotherapy.

2. Housing stabilizes sooner than expected. President Obama, under the aegis of Larry Summers, initiates a massive and unprecedented Marshall Plan to turn the housing market around. His plan includes several unconventional measures: Among other items is a $25,000 tax credit on all home purchases as well as a large tax credit and other subsidies to the financial intermediaries that provide the mortgage loans and commitments. This, combined with a lowering in mortgage rates (and a boom in refinancing), the bankruptcy/financial restructuring of three public homebuilders (which serves to lessen new home supply) and a flip-flop in the benefits of ownership vs. the merits of renting, trigger a second-quarter 2009 improvement in national housing activity, but the rebound is uneven. While the middle market rebounds, the high-end coastal housing markets remain moribund, as they impacted adversely by the Wall Street layoffs and the carnage in the hedge fund industry.

3. The nation’s commercial real estate markets experience only a shallow pricing downturn in the first half of 2009. President Obama’s broad-ranging housing legislation incorporates tax credits and other unconventional remedies directed toward nonresidential lending and borrowing. Banks become more active in office lending (as they do in residential real estate lending), and the commercial mortgage-backed securities market never experiences anything like the weakness exhibited in the 2007 to 2008 market. Office REIT shares, similar to housing-related equities, rebound dramatically, with several doubling in the new year’s first six months.

4. The U.S. economy stabilizes sooner than expected. After a decidedly weak January-to-February period (and a negative first-quarter 2009 GDP reading, which is similar to fourth-quarter 2008’s black hole), the massive and creative stimulus instituted by the newly elected President begins to work. Banks begin to lend more aggressively, and lower interest rates coupled with aggressive policy serve to contribute to an unexpected refinancing boom. By March, personal consumption expenditures begin to rebound slowly from an abysmal holiday and post-holiday season as energy prices remain subdued, and a shallow recovery occurs far sooner than many expect. Second-quarter corporate profits growth comfortably beats the downbeat and consensus forecasts as inflation remains tame, commodity prices are subdued, productivity rebounds and labor costs are well under control.

5. The U.S. stock market rises by close to 20% in the year’s first half. Housing-related stocks (title insurance, home remodeling, mortgage servicers and REITs) exhibit outsized and market-leading gains during the January-to-June interval. Heavily shorted retail and financial stocks also advance smartly. The year’s first-half market rise of about 20% is surprisingly orderly throughout the six-month period, as volatility moves back down to pre-2008 levels, but rising domestic interest rates, still weak European economies and a halt to China’s economic growth limit the stock market’s progress in the back half of the year.

6. A second quarter “growth scare” bursts the bubble in the government bond market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note moves steadily higher from 2.10% at year-end to over 3.50% by early fall, putting a ceiling on the first-half recovery in the U.S. stock market, which is range-bound for the remainder of the year, settling up by approximately 20% for the 12-month period ending Dec. 31, 2009. Foreign central banks, faced with worsening domestic economies, begin to shy away from U.S. Treasury auctions and continue to diversify their reserve assets. By year-end, the U.S. dollar represents less than 60% of worldwide reserve assets, down from 2008’s year-end at 62% and down from 70% only five years ago. China’s 2008 economic growth proves to be greatly exaggerated as unemployment surprisingly rises in early 2009 and the rate of growth in China’s real GDP moves towards zero by the second quarter. Unlike more developed countries, the absence of a social safety net turns China’s fiscal economic policy inward and aggressively so. Importantly, China not only is no longer a natural buyer of U.S. Treasuries but it is forced to dip into it’s piggy bank of foreign reserves, adding significant upside pressure to U.S. note and bond yields.

7. Commodities markets remain subdued. Despite an improving domestic economy, a further erosion in the Western European and Chinese economies weighs on the world’s commodities markets. Gold never reaches $1,000 an ounce and trades at $500 an ounce at some point during the year. (Gold-related shares are among 2009’s worst stock market performers.) The price of crude oil briefly rallies early in the year after a step up in the violence in the Middle East but trades in a broad $25 to $65 range for all of 2009 as President Obama successfully introduces aggressive and meaningful legislation aimed at reducing our reliance on imported oil. The price of gasoline briefly breaches $1.00 a gallon sometime in the year. The U.S. dollar outperforms most of the world’s currencies as the U.S. regains its place as an economic and political powerhouse.

8. Capital spending disappoints further. Despite an improving economy, large-scale capital spending projects continue to be delayed in favor of maintenance spending. Technology shares continue to lag badly, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD Quote - Cramer on AMD - Stock Picks) files bankruptcy.

9. The hedge fund and fund of funds industries do not recover in 2009. The Madoff fraud, poor hedge fund performance and renewed controversy regarding private equity marks (particularly among a number of high-profile colleges like Harvard and Yale) prove to be a short-term death knell to the alternative investments industry. As well, the gating of redemption requests disaffects high net worth, pension plan, endowment and University investors to both traditional hedge funds and to private equity (which suffers from a series of questionable and subjective marking of private equity deal pricings at several leading funds). Three of the 10 largest hedge funds close their doors as numerous hedge funds reduce their fee structures in order to retain investors. Faced with an increasingly uncertain investor base, several big hedge funds merge with like-sized competitors in a quickening hedge fund industry consolidation. By year-end, the number of hedge funds is down by well over 50%.

10. Mutual fund redemptions from 2008 reverse into inflows in 2009. The mutual fund industry does not suffer the same fate as the hedge fund industry. In fact, a renaissance of interest in mutual funds (especially of a passive/indexed kind) develops. Fidelity is the largest employer of the graduating classes (May 2009) at the Wharton and Harvard Business Schools; it goes public in late 2009 in the year’s largest IPO. Shares of T. Rowe Price (TROW Quote - Cramer on TROW - Stock Picks) and AllianceBernstein (AB Quote - Cramer on AB - Stock Picks) enjoy sharp price gains in the new year. Bill Miller retires from active fund management at Legg Mason (LM Quote - Cramer on LM - Stock Picks).

11. State and municipal imbalances and deficits mushroom. The municipal bond market seizes up in the face of poor fiscal management, revenue shortfalls and rising budgets at state and local levels. Municipal bond yields spike higher. A new Municipal TARP totaling $2 trillion is introduced in the year’s second half.

12. The automakers and the UAW come to an agreement over wages. Under the pressure of late first-quarter bankruptcies, the UAW agrees to bring compensation in line with non-U.S. competitors and exchanges a reduction in retiree health care benefits for equity in the major automobile manufacturers.

13. The new administration replaces SEC Commissioner Cox. Upon his inauguration, President Obama immediately replaces SEC Commissioner Christopher Cox with Yale professor Dr. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld. The new SEC commissioner recommends that the uptick rule be reinstated and undertakes a yearlong investigation/analysis into the impact of Ultra Bear ETFs on the market. Later in the year, the administration recommends that the SEC be abolished and folded into the Treasury Department. Dr. Sonnenfeld returns to Yale University.

14. Large merger of equals deals multiply. Economies of scale and mergers of equals become the M&A mantras in 2009, and niche investment banking boutiques such as Evercore (EVR Quote - Cramer on EVR - Stock Picks), Lazard (LAZ Quote - Cramer on LAZ - Stock Picks) and Greenhill (GHL Quote - Cramer on GHL - Stock Picks) flourish. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup announce a merger of equals, but Goldman maintains management control of the combined entity. Morgan Stanley (MS Quote - Cramer on MS - Stock Picks) acquires Blackstone. Disney (DIS Quote - Cramer on DIS - Stock Picks) purchases Carnival (CCL Quote - Cramer on CCL - Stock Picks). Microsoft (MSFT Quote - Cramer on MSFT - Stock Picks) acquires Yahoo! (YHOO Quote - Cramer on YHOO - Stock Picks) at $5 a share.

15. Focus shifts for several media darlings. Though continuing on CNBC, Jim “El Capitan” Cramer announces his own reality show that will air on NBC in the fall. At the time his reality show premieres, he also writes a new book, Stay Mad for Life: How to Prosper From a Buy/Hold Investment Strategy. Dr. Nouriel Roubini continues to talk depression, but the price of his speaking engagements are cut in half. He writes a new book, The New Depression: How Leverage’s Long Tail Will Result in Bread Lines. “Kudlow & Company’s” Larry Kudlow proclaims that it’s time to harvest the “mustard seeds” of growth and, in an admission of the Democrats’ growing economic successes, officially leaves the ranks of the Republican party and returns to his Democratic roots. Yale’s Dr. Robert Shiller adopts a variant and positive view on housing and the economy, joining the bullish ranks, and writes a new book, The New Financial Order: Economic Opportunity in the 21st Century.

16. The Internet becomes the tactical nuke of the digital age. The Web is invaded on many levels as governments, consumers and investors freak out. First, an act of cyberterrorism occurs that compromises the security of a major government (similar to the attacks this year emanating from the Chinese military aimed at the German Chancellery) or uses DoS against media and e-commerce sites. Second, a major data center will fail and will be far worse than the 1988 Cornell student incident that infected about 5% of the Unix boxes on the early Internet. Third, cybercrime explodes exponentially in 2008. Financial markets will be exposed to hackers using elaborate fraud schemes (such as liquidating and sweeping online brokerage accounts and shorting stocks, then employing a denial-of-service attack against the company). Fourth, Storm Trojan reappears. (Same as last year.)

17. A handful of sports franchises file bankruptcy. Three Major League Baseball teams fail in the middle of the season and seek government bailouts in order to complete the season. The Wilpon family, victimized by Madoff, sells the New York Mets to SAC’s Steve Cohen. The New York Yankees are undefeated in the 2009 season, and Madonna and A-Rod have a child together (out of wedlock).

18. The Fox Business Network closes. Racked by large losses, Rupert Murdoch abandons the Fox Business Network. CNBC rehires several prior employees and expands its programming into complete weekend coverage. Two popular CNBC commentators “go mainstream” and become regulars on NBC news programs.

19. Old, leveraged media implode. The worlds of leverage and old media collide in a massive flameout of previous leveraged deals. Univision and Clear Channel go bankrupt. The New York Times (NYT Quote - Cramer on NYT - Stock Picks) teeters financially.

20. The Middle East’s infrastructure build-out is abruptly halted owing to “market conditions.” Lower oil prices, weakening European economies and a broad overexpansion wreak havoc with the Middle East’s markets and economies.

Doug Kass is the author of The Edge, a blog on RealMoney Silver that features real-time shorting opportunities on the market.

Poker is a Game of Skill, simply explained

David — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 21:28:11 +0000

A rudimentary explanation of why poker is a game of skill:

There is a reason why casinos don’t run a poker table like they do a blackjack table (or any other table for that matter). Look at a game like blackjack (also known as 21): it is a game where a dealer and a player adhere to a set of rules, the player places a bet against the CASINO’s money before the game starts and then the dealer and the player each try to make a hand with a value as close to 21 as possible. Sounds simple enough, right?

Poker is a game where the casino will NOT play against the player because they cant reliably make money. In the game of poker people receive cards, and then are allowed to make a decision to play or not based on the value of their hand. Furthermore players are allowed to increase the stakes AFTER being allowed to make an informed decision based on the value of their cards. For either of these reasons alone casinos can NOT control a game of poker to the point where they can reliably make money. When a poker player sees their first two cards, they can reliably determine the statistical favorite to win any particular hand, and therefore can control their odds of winning. Additionally players are allowed to continually evaluate their cards as a hand progresses. Once again this allows a player to make an informed decision about where they stand in any particular hand, and mitigate their losses if they made a bad decision or became unlucky.

Poker quickly becomes much more complex than what I said above, as you have to weigh little details that change your percentages in various ways. For example you may have cards that are the favorite by 60 percent to win, but as the hand progresses you may see a swing that alters things by 60 percent, and you need to know that this does not equal 0 or 120 percent. My girl friend equates the math to shopping… If your 100 dollar item is on sale at 50 percent off, plus an additional 50 percent off, this does NOT make it free!!! The math should go something like 50 percent of 100 equals 50 dollars, plus an additional 25 dollars off (50 percent of 50 dollars). Your sale price is 25 dollars (a good deal, but again not free). So in poker when you have an 80 change of winning and then things change for the worse by 30 percent you need to know that you now have a 56 percent chance of winning (not a 50 percent chance of winning). From here it gets even more complex, but the bottom line is that it takes skill, knowledge, discipline, and a fortified emotional constitution to be a consistently winning poker player, and luck has very little to do with it.

If you want to argue my comparison of blackjack and poker, I will simply say this. Professional blackjack players must sacrifice a little loss to the casino to generate big wins, and the skill is not in the game, but actually outside the game. Think of your favorite competitive online video game… when someone gets outside the map and takes advantage of the situation, you call them a cheater, even though you could have gone outside the map yourself. It is the same with professional blackjack players, counting cards, and the casino banning them from playing. I will follow up with more on this at another date.

Vote no on UIGEA

David — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 20:46:06 +0000

Below is a letter I wrote to the Federal Reserve on why I feel a “No Vote” is important on the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 (or UIGEA). The link to the Federal Reserve Comments is also below, and you will find the title “Prohibition on Funding of Unlawful Internet Gambling [R-1298]” about half way down the page. My letter is hastily written and I would revise it if I could but it gets two points out there.

www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/foia/ProposedRegs.cfm

To whom it may concern:

Security and Accountability For Every Port Act of 2006 (or SAFE Port Act, Pub.L. 109-347: Title VIII of the Act is also known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 (or UIGEA). This title (found at 31 U.S.C. § 5361–5367) prohibits the transfer of funds from a financial institution to an Internet gambling site, with the notable exceptions of fantasy sports, online lotteries, and horse/harness racing.

I am writing today to ask that you please not finalize the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) regulations until their impact on our banking systems and average Americans has been fully studied. Finalization of the UIGEA rules will add additional burdens on our already crippled financial systems, and even the focus behind UIGEA is misdirected. Specifically the federal agencies responsible for our nation’s economy should not be focused on the banning of Internet poker, which is what UIGEA is mostly about.

One of the ways the UIGEA is misdirected is listed in its very own explanation, where it says it “prohibits the transfer of funds from a financial institution to an Internet gambling site, with the notable exceptions of fantasy sports, online lotteries, and horse/harness racing.” Why are there exceptions for Fantasy Sports, online lotteries, and horse/harness racing? The simple answer is: taxable money; and taxable money should be our answer… vote NO on UIGEA and lets rewrite something that lets us receive benefits from online players.

The truth of the matter is that UIGEA is mostly an attack on poker players. Poker should be considered a game of skill and form of the reaction of millions of Americans; it should be exempted from the UIGEA, on top of the fact that the UIGEA is misguided.

Sincerely,
David

Oil Prices and Gas Prices

David — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 17:35:12 +0000

Far too many of my friends have asked me about how crude oil prices affect prices at the gas pump. My answer, “they are directly related.” So below I have found a couple of charts that should be updated continuously (thanks to www.oil-price.net).

The daily price of Crude

The National Average Price at the Gas Pump

Military Long Term Investment Letter

David — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 15:11:16 +0000

Below is a letter I wrote to a military man I know, and I thought it was worth publishing on my page.

For the last month I have been “playing” Wall Street, and been thinking about what is right for me. For the first time in my life I started to play with short term trading (in addition to the long term investments I usually think about). Bottom line, short term trading is far too time consuming. I now spend 20 hours a week, watching just 20 stocks (or less) looking for that $100 bump. Not to mention it takes about $3-4000 minimum to do it properly. Well this is all leading into what I think about for my military friends, and anyone else that cant watch their investments.

First things first, get a broker. If you would like to use Scott Trade (www.scottrade.com), I can send you a referral and get you 3 free trades (I just need your email address). Normally Scott Trade costs $7 a trade, so that’s 7 to buy your stock, and 7 to sell. I chose them because most brokers are 10 a trade. PS, when you buy a stock, dont buy less than 500 dollars worth, and try to make it 1000 (otherwise the trade fees will be painful). Look at the WWE paragraph to see what I am talking about.

Step two: open a ROTH IRA. Specifically a ROTH (for military), and here is why. A ROTH IRA (IRA is individual retirement account) and allows you to pay taxes before putting money into the account (most IRAs you pay income taxes when you take the money out). Now here is the sweet part. If I remember correctly, because you are government, you dont pay taxes on your salary right? So your tax on the money going into your IRA would be $0.00 right? Where as if you paid income taxes on the money as it came out, you would be taxed at 20 percent or more because you would be retired military.

Step three: take as much money as possible, and put it into the account (you will not be able to touch it till your about 65)

Personally for me, my long term investments will include symbol SPY (this is an index fund of the Standard and Poor 500 stock exchange). What this means is that you will own a tiny piece of every stock traded on the S&P500. You will do as well as the market does. If it has a bad day, you will go down, if it has a good day you will go up. In the year 2000 SPY was at 150 (the dot com days) in 2002 it was at 85 per share (the dot com crash). It went back up to 150 by 2007, and has come down to 130 per share for 2008. I like to buy it between 120 and 130 (or less if it drops that far, but we will have to have another dot com crash to do that i think)

Next on the list is Goldman Sachs (symbol GS). For now dont buy GS. They are a financial group, and getting hit hard by the mortgage issue (all banks are getting hit right now). In 2009 im going to try to buy some at less than 175 per share (unless there is a miracle that saves the housing market). My plan is to hold it for 5 years and reevaluate, because that is what Cramer (the host of Mad Money TV show) said to do.

My last long term play for now is WWE (yes that is world wrestling entertainment). If I dont die from embarrassment, having to admit that I own WWE stock, I will make 9.49 percent in dividends a year. I bought at 15.23 a share which is to say that 15.25 dollars per share was the max I was willing to pay. If it drops below 15.00 i will buy more. Going back to 2006 the average price is 16 a share, with spikes as high as 18.5 and as low as 14. So just to share the numbers, if I sold WWE at 18 a share, that would be 18 percent profit. (at 14 dollars in fees, that would be minus 1.4 percent for fees because I bought 1000 dollars of WWE). So really the profit would be 16.6 percent. So far WWE regularly gets above 18 per share (about once a year). I probably already missed it this year, but if they keep going the way they have, they will hit 18 again some time in winter, or spring of 2009.

Anyway, SPY is the safest play, WWE is the next, and GS is the most risky (right now). GS and WWE could trade places when the economy gets better. SPY will be around until the fund manager gets caught committing massive fraud, or money as we know it becomes worthless and we start living out a version of some Mad Max movie.

Just remember, this is what im doing with my money, for my long term investments. A professional might recommend you do something else, but as Cramer likes to say “Do your own research, no one cares about your money as much as you do.”

Cramer’s Twenty-five Rules for Investing

David — Sun, 25 May 2008 06:17:44 +0000

Rule 1: Bulls, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
It’s essential for all traders to know when to take some off the table.

Rule 2: It’s OK to Pay the Taxes
Stop fearing the tax man and start fearing the loss man because gains can be fleeting.

Rule 3: Don’t Buy All at Once
To maximize your profits, stage your buys, work your orders and try to get the best price over time.

Rule 4: Buy Damaged Stocks, Not Damaged Companies
There are no refunds on Wall Street, so do your research and focus your trades on damaged stocks rather than companies.

Rule 5: Diversify to Control Risk
If you control the downside and diversify your holdings, the upside will take care of itself.

Rule 6: Do Your Stock Homework
Before you buy any stock, it’s important to research all aspects of the company.

Rule 7: No One Made a Dime by Panicking
There will always be a better time to leave the table, so it is best to avoid the fleeing masses.

Rule 8: Buy Best-of-Breed Companies
Investing in the more expensive stock is invariably worth it because you get piece of mind.

Rule 9: Defend Some Stocks, Not All
When trading gets tough, pick your favorite stocks and defend only those.

Rule 10: Bad Buys Won’t Become Takeovers
Bad companies never get bids, so it’s the good fundamentals you need to focus on.

Rule 11: Don’t Own Too Many Names
It can be constraining, but it’s better to have a few positions you know well and like.

Rule 12: Cash Is for Winners
If you don’t like the market or have anything compelling to buy, it’s never wrong to go with cash.

Rule 13: No Woulda, Shoulda, Couldas
This damaging emotion is destructive to the positive mindset needed to make investment decisions.

Rule 14: Expect, Don’t Fear Corrections
It is not always clear when a correction will strike, so expect and be prepared for one at all times.

Rule 15: Don’t Forget Bonds
It’s important to watch more than stocks, and bonds are stocks’ direct competition.

Rule 16: Never Subsidize Losers With Winners
Any trader stuck in this position would do well to sell sinking stocks and wait a day.

Rule 17: Check Hope at the Door
Hope is emotion, pure and simple, and trading is not a game of emotion.

Rule 18: Be Flexible
Recognize and be open to the unexpected shifts in the market because business, by nature, is dynamic, not static.

Rule 19: When the Chiefs Retreat, So Should You
High-level executives don’t quit a company for personal reasons, so that is a sign something is wrong.

Rule 20: Giving Up on Value Is a Sin
If you don’t have patience, think about letting someone who does run your money.

Rule 21: Be a TV Critic
Accept that what you hear on television is probably right, but no more than that.

Rule 22: Wait 30 Days After Preannouncements
Preannouncements signal ongoing weakness, wait 30 days to see if anything has gotten better before you pull the trigger to buy.

Rule 23: Beware of Wall Street Hype
Never underestimate the promotion machine because analysts get behind stocks and can keep them propelled in an up direction well beyond reason.

Rule 24: Explain Your Picks
Buying stocks is a solitary event, too solitary in fact, so always make sure you can articulate your reasoning to someone else.

Rule 25: There’s Always a Bull Market
It’s OK if you have to work hard to find it, just don’t default to what’s in bear mode because you are time-constrained or intellectually lazy.

Taken directly from TheStreet.com, I just needed to make sure that I was covered if their link ever died.

10,000 Dollars for Rainbow 6 Vegas 2 Tournament

David — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 23:16:11 +0000

$10,000 grand prize (and only prize) for Rainbow 6 Vegas 2 Tournament (video game)

so i have to rant about the new starving musician; the “Professional Video Gamer”

http://gamebattles.com/r6v2/rules.php

$10,000 for Rainbow 6 Vegas 2 Tournament

The following rounds will take place online:
Online Tournament Play - Round 1 - April 15th through 16th. Winners from Round 1 will move on to Round 2.
Online Tournament Play - Round 2 � April 22rd through 24th. Winners from Round 2 will move on to Round 3.
Online Tournament Play � Round 3 � April 29th through May 1st. Winners of Round 3 will move on to Round 4.
Online Tournament Play � Round 4 � May 6th through 8th. Winners of Round 4 will be the champions of the Online Ladder/Tournament

so here is what that really says… we are going to make you play wednesday and thursday (week after week) to make sure you are either a “professional gamer” or have a totally odd work schedule (because you must be at least 18 years old to play). not to mention if you do take first prize you have to split the 10k by 4 people. at that rate the time put in is basically a job, BUT somehow there are almost 4000 teams registered for this event.

i find the whole situation funny because there are almost 4000 teams of 4 players each and they all have to buy copies of Vegas 2 at $60 (sometimes $70 for the limited edition) a copy. thats about a million dollars in sales just from the people registered for this contest. now with that said Ubisoft generated sales of 680 million Euros for the 2006-07 fiscal year (the same year Rainbow 6 Vegas the first game came out)

gamebattles.com is hosting the event and is promoting the idea of the Major League Gamer aka “professional gamer”

furthermore gamebattles.com, hosts about 1-2 tournaments a month and usually brings in 12-18 thousand in fees (by my estimate) and pays out on average 3-5 thousand (meaning that the 4 people who run the site have a part time job that pays about 3000 a month). in all fairness i do need to mention that the RB6 Vegas 2 contest is free to enter, thanks to Ubisoft (wait why would they make this one free with an even larger prize than normal?)

all in all if they are truly trying to promote “professional gaming” this is a sad way to do it, and will create an even greater number of “failed professional gamblers” (who need social services)

I love these games myself, and i love poker (another game of skill/talent where the best get everyone else’s money), but why doesn’t anyone teach these kids that this situation is crap. but hey $2500 each for 4 lucky people is free money, what do i know

Road Runner HoldCo LLC Spam

David — Mon, 17 Dec 2007 22:03:21 +0000

Selected more or less at random today; I picked them because I noticed a number of spam messages posted in a row. Fortunately this is an US American company and by law has the following ways to report spam.

ABUSE10-ARIN
Phone: +1-703-345-3416
Email: abuse@rr.com

Road Runner HoldCo LLC Spam
RCSW
13241 Woodland Park Road
Herndon VA 20171

The Net Range of course means that they have been assigned the following IP addresses and everything in between.

71.40.0.0 - 71.40.255.255
71.41.0.0 - 71.41.255.255
71.42.0.0 - 71.42.255.255
71.43.0.0 - 71.43.255.255

NetRange: 71.40.0.0 - 71.43.255.255
CIDR: 71.40.0.0/14
NetName: RCSW
NetHandle: NET-71-40-0-0-1
Parent: NET-71-0-0-0-0
NetType: Direct Allocation
NameServer: NS1.BIZ.RR.COM
NameServer: NS2.BIZ.RR.COM
NameServer: DNS4.RR.COM
Comment:
RegDate: 2005-04-01
Updated: 2006-11-28

OrgTechHandle: IPTEC-ARIN
OrgTechName: IP Tech
OrgTechPhone: +1-703-345-3416
OrgTechEmail: abuse@rr.com

# ARIN WHOIS database, last updated 2007-12-16 19:10

Drew Carey Speaks for Poker and Veterans of TX

David — Fri, 07 Dec 2007 23:37:38 +0000

Early in 2007 the Dallas, Texas authorities put a stop to an illegal poker game that was put on by the Veterans of Foreign (VAF) Wars Post number 1837. Now at first you might think , “Good job, Dallas! What were the Veterans of Foreign Wars members doing running an illegal poker game?” Now run that through your head again, what were the VAF members doing running a poker game? The answer, is of course raising money for charity. They have been doing it for years. The Poker Players Alliance (PPA) cite Dalllas as the 34th most dangerous city in America, and think the police might be avoiding real work for easy targets.

Watch the YouTube video and see why Drew Carey is speaking up on behalf of the now closed VAF 1837.